DAILY CURRENT AFFAIRS IAS | UPSC Prelims and Mains Exam – 24th October 2026

International Relations | Defence Exercises | India and Southeast Asia

Why in the news?

The 33rd edition of SIMBEX-2026, the Singapore–India Maritime Bilateral Exercise, is being held at Visakhapatnam from 21–26 October 2026. The exercise involves the Indian Navy and the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN). 

Key facts

• Full form: Singapore–India Maritime Bilateral Exercise.
• Participating countries: India and Singapore.
• First held: 1994, initially named Exercise Lion King.
• Edition: 33rd in 2026.
• Indian venue: Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh.
• Sea phase location: Bay of Bengal.
• Participating Singaporean ship: RSS Supreme.
• Indian Navy ships highlighted: INS Nilgiri and INS Kamorta. 

Major operational components

• Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW): Detecting, tracking and countering underwater threats.
• Anti-surface warfare: Operations against hostile surface vessels.
• Anti-air warfare: Countering airborne threats.
• Seamanship and tactical manoeuvres: Improving ship-handling and coordinated naval operations. 

Strategic significance

• Enhances interoperability between the Indian Navy and the RSN.
• Strengthens bilateral defence and maritime cooperation.
• Supports maritime security and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
• Reflects the importance of the Bay of Bengal and maritime links between South and Southeast Asia.

Sources: 

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseDetail.aspx?PRID=2326348&reg=3&lang=1

Environment & Ecology | Pollution Control | Environmental Organisations

Why in the news?

An analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), reported on 22–23 October 2026, found no sustained improvement in Delhi’s winter air quality during the four winters after the 2022 revision of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP). Delhi’s mean winter AQI rose from 280 in 2022–23 to 295 in 2025–26. The analysis also found that AQI was higher in the week after GRAP escalation in 10 of 12 examined episodes. These observations do not, by themselves, prove that GRAP caused pollution to rise or failed to prevent worse outcomes. 

What is CREA?

• Full name: Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
• Nature: Independent research organisation focused on air pollution and its links with energy, health and climate.
• Research areas: Sources of air pollution, fossil-fuel use, industrial emissions, transport, energy transition and public-health impacts.
• Approach: Uses scientific analysis and publicly available data to assess pollution trends and policy effectiveness.

Key findings of the CREA analysis

What is GRAP?

The Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) is an emergency framework to control air pollution in Delhi-NCR. It was introduced in 2017 and substantially revised in 2022.

• Stage I — Poor: AQI 201–300
• Stage II — Very Poor: AQI 301–400
• Stage III — Severe: AQI 401–450
• Stage IV — Severe Plus: AQI above 450

Measures become progressively stricter, covering construction activities, vehicles, industries and other pollution sources. The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) oversees its implementation. 

Implications for air-pollution policy

• Emergency restrictions alone are insufficient: Long-term reduction of emissions from transport, industries, power generation, construction and waste burning is necessary.
• Regional coordination: Pollution crosses administrative boundaries, requiring coordinated action across the wider NCR airshed.
• Evidence-based intervention: Air-quality monitoring, reliable forecasting and source-apportionment studies can improve policy design.
• Balanced interpretation: A separate study by IITM-Pune and CAQM estimated that GRAP restrictions may have prevented substantially more severe-AQI hours. The CREA analysis does not establish what pollution levels would have been without the restrictions. 

Sources: 

https://dailypioneer.com/delhi/grap-measures-failed-to-improve-air-quality-since-2022-says-crea

Science & Technology | Biotechnology | Zoonotic Diseases | One Health

Why in the news?

France reported the first documented human infection with Shamonda virus in October 2026. The patient, who was severely immunocompromised and receiving treatment for a serious illness, died in early October. French authorities and the World Health Organization (WHO) have stated that no risk to the general population has been identified so far. Investigations into the infection and its transmission are continuing. 

What is Shamonda virus?

• Type: RNA virus belonging to the genus Orthobunyavirus.
• Family: Peribunyaviridae.
• Group: Simbu serogroup.
• First identified: Isolated from cattle in Nigeria in 1965.
• Primary hosts: Cattle; infections have also been detected in sheep, goats, horses and alpacas.
• Vector: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides.
• Transmission: Primarily between animals through infected midges. The likely route in the French human case is a midge bite, but investigations are ongoing. 

Symptoms and effects

In animals:

• Fever, diarrhoea and weakness.
• Reduced appetite and milk production.
• Reproductive complications, including abortions or congenital abnormalities in some cases.

In humans:

• Evidence remains extremely limited because only one documented case has been reported.
• The French patient experienced serious neurological complications and was profoundly immunocompromised.
• No human-to-human transmission has been identified. 

Geographical spread

• Historically reported in parts of Africa and Japan.
• Detected in European livestock in 2026, including Germany, Switzerland and France.
• Subsequently reported in several other European countries.
• The virus’s emergence in Europe has raised concerns about livestock health and agricultural productivity. 

Sources: 

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/france-reports-first-human-shamonda-virus-case-says-no-health-risk/article71611244.ece

Social Justice | Government Schemes | Skill Development

Why in the news?

According to the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment, 1,87,305 candidates were trained and 96,162 were placed under PM-DAKSH during 2020–21 to 2023–24. From 2024–25 onwards, the scheme was subsumed under the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) to avoid duplication of training programmes. 

What is PM-DAKSH?

• Full form: Pradhan Mantri Dakshata Aur Kushalta Sampann Hitgrahi.
• Launched: 2020–21.
• Type: Central Sector Scheme.
• Nodal ministry: Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment.
• Objective: Improve employability and promote self-employment among disadvantaged sections through skill development.

Target beneficiaries

• Scheduled Castes (SCs)
• Other Backward Classes (OBCs)
• Economically Weaker Sections (EWS)
• De-notified Tribes (DNTs)
• Safai Karamcharis, including waste pickers

Major features

• Provides skill training through empanelled training institutions.
• Supports both wage employment and self-employment.
• Training programmes are linked to employment opportunities and local labour-market needs.
• Training institutions are required to facilitate employment for at least 70% of trained candidates. Failure to meet this requirement results in forfeiture of the third instalment, equivalent to 30% of the training cost.
• Provides support through associated financial and development corporations. 

Implementing agencies

These corporations operate under the Department of Social Justice and Empowerment. 

Performance and merger

The government’s evaluation found that over 90% of beneficiaries reported that the training aligned with their career goals and local labour-market needs. 

Sources:

https://ddindia.co.in/2026/10/pm-daksh-trained-1-87-lakh-candidates-placed-over-96000-merged-with-pmkvy-to-avoid-duplication/

Environment & Ecology | Climate Change | International Reports

Why in the news?

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released the Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return on 21 October 2026. It warns that limiting global warming to 1.5°C without significant overshoot is no longer achievable, but a return to that level by 2100 remains possible with rapid emissions cuts and large-scale carbon dioxide removal. 

Key findings

• Global emissions: Greenhouse gas emissions reached approximately 58.4 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent (GtCO₂e) in 2025, a marginal decline from 2024. However, fossil-fuel-related CO₂ emissions continued to rise. 
• Temperature projections: Under current policies, warming could reach 2.8°C by 2100. Full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) could limit warming to around 2.6°C; achieving NDCs plus additional net-zero targets could limit it to around 2.1°C. 
• Required emissions cuts: To return to 1.5°C by 2100, global GHG emissions must fall relative to 2025 levels by:
  • 18% by 2030
  • 45% by 2035
  • 69% by 2040
• Carbon dioxide removal: The lowest-overshoot scenario requires removing and permanently storing approximately 320 Gt of CO₂ over this century. 

What is the emissions gap?

The emissions gap is the difference between projected global greenhouse gas emissions under countries’ climate commitments or current policies and the lower emissions pathway needed to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals.

Key recommendations

• Accelerate renewable-energy deployment and energy efficiency.
• Reduce dependence on coal, oil and gas.
• Cut methane emissions.
• Strengthen national climate commitments and implement existing policies.
• Develop carbon dioxide removal alongside—not as a substitute for—deep emissions reductions. 

Sources:

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/emissions-gap-report-2026-point-of-no-return-for-the-15c-warming-threshold

GS III – Economy
Inflation Dynamics, Monetary Policy, and Supply-Side Shocks

Introduction

The RBI’s October monetary policy had a distinctively hawkish tone. The MPC noted that inflation and its outlook were not benign, with signs of price pressures becoming generalised and symptoms of elevated inflation expectations. The committee unanimously voted to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and change the policy stance to “calibrated tightening”—though two members (Nagesh Kumar and Ram Singh) voted against the stance change, preferring to retain a neutral posture. The recently released minutes shed light on differences of opinion: is inflation getting generalised, or is it largely supply-driven? This distinction matters for the extent of policy tightening.

The Generalisation Debate

The Case for Generalisation

• RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra: “There are increasing signs of generalisation of inflation as 37% of the commodities in the CPI basket had inflation above 4% in August—it was merely 20% in March“.
• Saugata Bhattacharya: “Data increasingly suggests that price pressures are getting entrenched into the economic system”.
• Household Expectations: Three-month ahead inflation expectations jumped 70 basis points to 9.9%.
• Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta: Monetary policy works with a lag; waiting for definitive evidence may be undesirable.

The Case Against

• Nagesh Kumar: “Inflation is driven largely by supply-side factors and does not show any signs of overheating of the economy nor of generalisation”.
• Ram Singh: Favoured neutral stance; warned that signalling an extended rate-hike cycle could weaken demand beyond rate-sensitive sectors.

The Data

• September CPI: 5.54% (up from 4.83% in August); rural 6.08%, urban 4.88%.
• Food Inflation (CFPI): 7.74%; rural 8.06%, urban 7.18%.
• Drivers: Onion (108.09%), ginger (62.85%), garlic (54.62%).
• Core Inflation: Rose to 4.2% in August from 3.9% previously.

The Supply-Side Risks

El Niño and Monsoon

• Monsoon Deficit: 12.6% below normal; fourth-lowest since 2001.
• El Niño Strengthening: Likely to become very strong towards November, during rabi sowing.
• Rabi Risk: Soil moisture depleted; reservoir buffers thinner; rainfed belts in south, west, east most exposed.
• Irrigation Shield: Wheat (>95% irrigated) less exposed; gram (~52%) and jowar (~25%) more vulnerable.

Global Food Prices

• Hardening: Global food prices, relatively soft compared to energy and metals, are now hardening.
• El Niño Impact: Could gather further momentum, impacting rabi crops.

Energy Prices

• Brent Crude: Trading around $115 per barrel.
• Pass-Through: Evidence of input-cost pass-through in restaurants and cooked meals.

The Policy Dilemma

The Hawkish Case

• Pre-emptive Action: Indranil Bhattacharyya: “Better to set aside the ‘cautiousness bias’ and act in a pre-emptive manner”.
• Inflation Forecast: RBI raised FY27 CPI forecast to 5.2% (from 5%); Q3 projected at 6.0% (upper tolerance limit).
• Rate Cuts Off: Governor Malhotra indicated cuts are off the table in the near term.

The Growth Concern

• GDP Growth: 7.8% in Q1; RBI raised FY27 forecast to 7.1% (up 40 bps).
• Risk: Too rapid adjustment could constrict growth.
• Rate-Sensitive Sectors: Automobiles, real estate could be affected.

The Key Question

• Second-Round Effects: Whether supply-side pressures get embedded in pricing behaviour, wages, and expectations.
• Malhotra: “There are only limited signs of supply-side pressures getting embedded in pricing behaviour”.
• But: Distinguishing second-round effects from indirect input-cost pass-through is difficult.

Way Forward

Monetary Policy

• Data-Dependent: Pace and duration of rate hikes contingent on inflation trends, diffusion, and second-round effects.
• Calibrated Tightening: Incremental, mild hikes rather than “high-for-long”.
• Liquidity Management: VRRR operations, FX swaps to manage surplus liquidity.

Supply-Side Measures

• Buffer Stocks: Release food stocks; import management.
• Rabi Support: Ensure irrigation, seeds, and contingency plans for rainfed areas.
• Energy Security: Diversify suppliers; strategic reserves.

Monitoring

• Diffusion Index: Track share of CPI items with inflation above 4%.
• Expectations: Household surveys; firm pricing behaviour.
• El Niño: Monitor rabi sowing and reservoir levels.

Conclusion

The RBI’s October policy was distinctively hawkish—25 bps hike to 5.50%, stance changed to calibrated tightening. The debate within the MPC centres on whether inflation is generalising: 37% of CPI items had inflation above 4% in August (vs. 20% in March); three-month ahead expectations jumped to 9.9%. Governor Malhotra sees increasing signs of generalisation; Nagesh Kumar argues inflation is supply-driven. The supply-side risks are real: 12.6% monsoon deficit, strengthening El Niño, rabi exposure, Brent at $115/barrel. The key question is whether second-round effects take hold. The RBI has raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.2%, with Q3 projected at 6.0%. Rate cuts are off the table; further hikes depend on data. The extent of tightening will hinge on how supply-side pressures evolve and whether they become embedded in pricing behaviour and expectations.

Practice Question

1. Examine how supply-side shocks can trigger persistent inflation through second-round effects. What should be the appropriate monetary policy response of the RBI in such a situation? (250 words, 15 marks)

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/editorials/the-problem-is-inflations-second-round-effects-10934429/

GS II – International Relations
West Asian Geopolitics, Diaspora Safety, and Strategic Autonomy

Introduction

The killing of an Indian national in a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia’s Dammam airport is a grim reminder of the dangers the kingdom’s Indian community faces as the conflict between Riyadh and Yemen’s Shia militants escalates. Since fighting resumed in July 2026, at least two Indians have been killed and 14 wounded. On Thursday, the Houthis claimed a yacht with 14 Indians was targeted by Saudi forces near Yemen’s Zuqar island in the Red Sea, with rescue operations underway. As the Houthis—who control parts of Northern Yemen and its entire Red Sea coast—step up attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including oil facilities and airports, Indians, the kingdom’s largest expat community, risk getting caught in the crossfire. With flights disrupted, thousands of Indian pilgrims are stranded. India has condemned Houthi attacks, saying it “stands in solidarity” with Saudi Arabia.

The Conflict: Origins and Trajectory

Historical Background

• 2014: Houthi takeover of Sana’a, Yemen’s capital.
• 2015: Saudi Arabia began bombing Yemen to drive Houthis out.
• Counterproductive: Years of Saudi bombing consolidated Houthi support among northern tribes; they built a powerful territorial army and naval force.

Collapse of the 2022 Ceasefire

• July 2026: Ceasefire collapsed after Saudi Arabia bombed Sana’a airport to prevent an Iranian plane with a Houthi delegation from landing.
• Houthi Response: Attacks on Saudi critical infrastructure; ground offensive against Saudi-backed forces in Yemen.

The Security Challenge

• Biggest Challenge to MBS: Houthi attacks pose the biggest security challenge to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in decades.
• Saudi Dilemma: Massive air strikes have neither defeated the Houthis nor restored deterrence; the kingdom remains exposed to missile and drone attacks, with few good options.

India’s Stakes

The Indian Community

• Largest Expat Community: Indians are the kingdom’s largest expat community.
• Casualties: Two killed, 14 wounded since July 2026.
• Yacht Incident: 14 Indians on a yacht targeted near Zuqar island; rescue operations underway.
• Pilgrims Stranded: Flights disrupted; thousands of Indian pilgrims stranded.

Strategic Interests

• Energy Security: Saudi Arabia is a key oil supplier.
• Diaspora Safety: Millions of Indians in the Gulf; remittances critical.
• Regional Stability: Further violence and instability could make India’s choices increasingly difficult.
• Escalation Risk: High possibility of Israel and the U.S. resuming Iran strikes.

Way Forward

Immediate Priorities

• Evacuation: Immediate priority should be to evacuate stranded Indian pilgrims.
• Contingency Plan: India must prepare for worst-case scenarios—evacuation of diaspora, energy supply disruptions, regional escalation.

Diplomatic Position

• Stronger Position for Stability: Articulate a stronger position for regional stability.
• Work with Arab Countries and Tehran: Push for a diplomatic settlement to the Iran crisis.
• Proactive, Not Reactive: India must adopt a pro-active position in the Saudi-Houthi conflict.

Long-Term Strategy

• Energy Diversification: Reduce dependence on any single supplier; strategic reserves; renewables.
• Diaspora Protection: Strengthen consular services; evacuation mechanisms.
• Strategic Autonomy: Balance relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, and the U.S.
• Multilateral Engagement: Work through the UN, SCO, BRICS, and bilateral channels.

Conclusion

The Saudi-Houthi conflict poses a growing risk to India’s diaspora, energy security, and regional interests. The killing of an Indian national at Dammam airport, the yacht incident with 14 Indians, and thousands of stranded pilgrims underscore the urgency. The conflict dates back to 2014; years of Saudi bombing have proved counterproductive, and the 2022 ceasefire collapsed in July 2026. Houthi attacks pose the biggest security challenge to MBS in decades; Saudi Arabia has few good options. India must prepare a contingency plan for worst-case scenarios, evacuate stranded pilgrims, and articulate a stronger position for stability—working with Arab countries and Tehran to push for a diplomatic settlement. For peace to prevail in the Persian Gulf, the guns directed at Iran must first fall silent. India must adopt a pro-active position, not a reactive one.

Practice Question

1. The Saudi-Houthi conflict poses a growing risk to India’s diaspora and energy security; India must adopt a pro-active position for regional stability. Critically examine India’s stakes in the conflict and suggest a comprehensive strategy. (250 words, 15 marks)

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/in-the-crossfire-on-india-and-the-saudi-houthi-conflict/article71616277.ece