INTERNATIONAL
TOPIC:
- General Studies 1: Effects of globalization on India; Distribution of key natural resources across the world (including South Asia and the Indian subcontinent); factors responsible for the location of primary, secondary, and tertiary sector industries in various parts of the world (including India).
- General Studies 2: Indian Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests; Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora; Important International institutions, agencies and fora- their structure, mandate.
- General Studies 3: Effects of liberalization on the economy, changes in industrial policy and their effects on industrial growth.
OPEC & the present Global Order
OPEC: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization, created at the Baghdad Conference on September 10–14, 1960; presently headquartered at Vienna, Austria
Objective: To co-ordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order to secure
Risks with the Global Oil Economy:
Present Global Oil Order
Initially OPEC decided to take on upstart US shale oil producers by keeping output steady and prices low and has gone ahead and raised its output ceiling at present
Renewed declaration of war?
Hardly—the organisation’s member states were pumping more than its self-imposed quota, producing about 31.4 million barrels a day yet the lifting of the ceiling caused a sharp drop in the price of Brent crude
Shocker— 3 elements
False Signal as—
OPEC: The Failing Giant??
Major Hold: By Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s policy
“Saudi Arabia’s output behaviour has varied over time in a systematic way, in response to market conditions and also to interruptions within OPEC. Its behaviour differed between ‘normal’ periods and periods with interruptions. In normal periods, when faced with reduced demand, Saudi Arabia cooperated with its OPEC partners to restrict output. During interruptions, however, it would increase its output to offset reductions in the rest of OPEC, not to match the reductions.”
Mid-1980s: Cut exports trying unsuccessfully to hold up high global prices,
1990s: Kept output steady, allowing other OPEC countries to regain market share at their expense
But
Oil Market today—
Exporters:
Saudi Arabia has often obliged in the past but they will not at present. WHY?
Saudi Arabia— No cut in Output
US should not be able to claim the swing producer role
If the Saudis agreed to a production cut now and prices jumped, it would provide relief to the frackers
OPEC members might get more revenue but they would face a battle for their traditional markets- ‘boosted global demand and curbed growth in supplies of US shale oil’
Nature of current Oil Prices
The global demand for oil in 2015 has been increasing by 1.4 per cent translating into 1.3 million barrels a day or 1.4 million barrels a day which marks a good and positive development but what is preventing the price from increasing – is that every time the price shows signs of moving up, OPEC and particularly Saudi Arabia introduces more oil thus exacerbating an already existing glut
Shale Invasion:
Saudi Arabia:
Bluffed of refusing to cut production: Assumption that if prices fall, shale oil wells will shut down and the companies will have to go in for bankruptcy. Initially it did work that way butdespite lesser wells running, oil production in the US touched a 43-year-old high of 9.6 million barrel per day.
An opportunity: For the shale gas producers to
Shale oil is a fact of life and even if OPEC can slow it down but it is geology that keeps the power within it, to eventually kill Shale oil.
OPEC & Global Oil Scenario (Estimated Data)
India—need not worry with the fight for oil supremacy as:
Note: Double dip signals that prices are heading downwards and might touch the previous low and are likely to stay there for some time
MUST READ
Groundbreaking for TAPI project tomorrow
AAP’s Jan Lokpal doesn’t fit the bill- It doesn’t have sufficient power and independence, and seems unworkable
State of the service- Voters are changing politics. Politicians must reform the civil services
For Detailed Analysis on ‘Bureaucracy/Civil Services’, refer the below link
http://iasbaba.com/2015/09/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-12th-september-2015/
http://iasbaba.com/2015/12/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-1st-december-2015/
Heal thyself- A new study underlines the high cost of the failure to contain out-of-pocket expenses for healthcare in India
For Detailed Analysis on ’Health Care in India’, refer the below link
http://iasbaba.com/2015/08/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-25th-august-2015/
http://iasbaba.com/2015/10/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-5th-6th-october-2015/
http://iasbaba.com/2015/10/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-11th-12th-october-2015/
http://iasbaba.com/2015/10/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-22nd-october-2015/
Delhi should wield a carrot- India’s influence will be more effective if it ends its unofficial blockade of Nepal.
For Detailed Analysis on ’India-Nepal Relationship’, refer the below link
http://iasbaba.com/2015/10/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-11th-12th-october-2015/
http://iasbaba.com/2015/08/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-4th-august-2015/
OR
‘IASbaba’s Monthly Magazine- August 2015’ for more analysis on Nepal Crisis
