Day 31 – Q 1. In a globalised world, events occurring beyond the borders have domestic repercussions. In this light, examine the possible implications of Russian aggression against Ukraine on India. (10 Marks)

1. In a globalised world, events occurring beyond the borders have domestic repercussions. In this light, examine the possible implications of Russian aggression against Ukraine on India.

एक वैश्वीकृत दुनिया में, सीमाओं से परे होने वाली घटनाओं का घरेलू असर होता है। इस प्रकाश में, भारत पर यूक्रेन के विरुद्ध रूसी आक्रमण के संभावित प्रभावों का परीक्षण कीजिए।

Approach- 

Candidates need to write about Ukraine crisis and then simply write implications of it on India in current and future scenario also suggest wayforward. 

Introduction 

The Ukraine crisis has crossed a critical point, with Russia following up its recognition of rebel regions in eastern Ukraine (Donbas region)- Donetsk and Luhansk. The conflict is now the largest attack by one state on another in Europe since the Second World War, and the first since the Balkan conflict in the 1990s.

Body 

Implications of Russian aggression against Ukraine on India:

• India’s imports of petroleum products from Russia are only a fraction of its total oil import bill and thus, replaceable. But getting alternative sources for fertilizers and sunflower oil may not be as easy. 
• Exports to Russia account for less than 1% of India’s total exports; pharmaceuticals and tea could face some challenges, as will shipments to CIS countries. 
• Freight rate hikes (due to increased risk in global trade) could make overall exports less competitive too, but it is the indirect impact on the trade account that is more worrying.
• The surge in crude oil prices will increase India’s inelastic oil import bill, and gold imports could increase and keep the rupee under pressure. As a result, trade and current account deficits may be jeopardised, although forex reserves are healthy.
• India imports more than 80% of its oil requirement, but the share of oil imports in its total imports is around 25%.
• Rising oil prices could speed up already rising inflation. Oil-related products have a share of over 9% in the WPI basket. 
• Also, sanctions on Russia by the West could impact its trade with the India in strategic issues such as S400. 
• The prospective Russian invasion of Ukraine comes amidst India’s military tensions with China and Delhi’s continued dependence on Moscow’s military supplies. Shift of West and USA from Indo Pacific to European Baltic region. 
• It also comes at a time when Delhi is trying to build an international coalition against China’s brazen attacks on the territorial sovereignty of its Asian neighbours.
• Huge challenge of evacuation of Indian citizens students from the Ukraine that is around 20000 and other Ukraine bordering warton region. 

Wayforward

• It will have to balance the pressure from one strategic partner to condemn the violation of international law, with that from another to understand its legitimate concerns. 
• Delhi must talk continually to all sides, and engage with all of its partners, keeping in mind that there is no justification for the violation of any country’s territorial sovereignty.
• India must also make it clear to coercing countries that their “with us or against us” formulations are hardly constructive.