Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development.
Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation
Reviving the economy: 3C approach to atmanirbharta
Context: The economic ramifications of COVID-19 have a significant bearing on reshaping the world economic order as countries weigh their external linkages and recalibrate development strategies.
Do You Know?
According to forecasts by the OECD, by end-2021, the US economy is likely to be the same size as it was in 2019, but China is expected to be 10% larger.
Europe and Japan would languish below their pre-pandemic level of output and could do so for several years.
What is India’s Position?
From India’s perspective, recovery in GDP growth is firmly on track and sets the foundation to regain our position as the fastest-growing major economy next year.
For India to claim its rightful position in the new world order, it is imperative that the vision of ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ is globally integrated to harness the opportunities created by the emerging shifts.
At this critical juncture, it is important to set the vision of positioning Aatmanirbhar Bharat in the new world order with priorities closely linked with our global aspirations.
Moving in this direction, our focus should be on three interconnected strategic priorities.
Commerce: Increasing India’s share in world exports and FDI
On trade and FDI, it is crucial to reaffirm that Aatmanirbhar Bharat is not mistaken for an inward-looking India.The path taken by India is not about being self-contained but strengthening our position in global supply chains.
Bolstering international trade and investments is key for India to lift its GDP growth and per-capita income.
The share of India’s exports of goods and services in GDP has declined steadily from 24.5% in 2011 to 18.7% in 2019. At 13th position globally, India has a share of 2.2% in world exports of goods and services—nearly a fifth of China (10.6%).
It is noteworthy to mention that India’s trade to GDP ratio has surpassed that of China since 2008, but our imports outweigh exports significantly.
A renewed focus is required to rejuvenate exports with a special emphasis on high potential manufacturing sectors—electronics, apparels, pharma, among others.
With regard to FDI, an analysis of G20 countries reveals that India achieved the highest growth of 20.3% (CAGR) in FDI inflows between 1990 and 2019. However, in value terms, India ranked 9th globally in 2019, which shows further potential to move up the global order.
Competitiveness
Achieving a higher share in exports and FDI needs to be oriented with a push for greater global competitiveness.
This requires investment in infrastructure, particularly in power and logistics, and reducing the regulatory compliance burden on companies.
The emerging shifts in global value chains(GVC) provide India a significant opportunity to attract multinational companies. Therefore, sustained efforts are needed to build technical capacities and scale of Indian enterprises for enhancing participation in GVCs
It will also be crucial to embrace Industry 4 with greater adoption of frontier technologies by the Indian industry.
Currency
Finally, thrust on expanding trade and investment can be supplemented with promoting greater use of rupee in international settlements to be more resilient to external shocks and currency risks.
India needs to take a leaf from China’s playbook on currency internationalisation.
In 2019, the cross-border RMB settlement amounted to RMB 19.7 trillion ($2.8 trillion), accounting for 38.1% of China’s total cross-border settlement. On trade, cross-border settlement reached RMB 5.2 trillion ($745 billion) with a share of 15% in China’s total trade.
From India’s standpoint, steps can be taken to enhance trade settlement in rupee in a two-pronged process:
Regionalisation—strengthening the mechanism already existing with Nepal and Bhutan and extending to other major countries in the region, and
Internationalisation—involving key partner countries globally.
A broad-based push to currency internationalisation and greater global acceptability of rupee can come from setting a goal to be the next currency for inclusion in IMF’s SDR basket.
Conclusion
To conclude, linking the vision of Aatmanirbhar Bharat with global strategic priorities of enhancing 3Cs—commerce, competitiveness & currency internationalisation can be a cornerstone to strengthen India’s position in the post-pandemic new world order.
