In stand-off, keeping an eye on the nuclear ball

INTERNATIONAL/ SECURITY

Topic: General Studies 2:

• Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests 
• Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors

In stand-off, keeping an eye on the nuclear ball

Context: There is now growing evidence that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to expand its nuclear arsenal

Why China is increasing its nuclear arsenal?

• Power projection: An increased nuclear arsenal means a stronger deterrence to China’s opponents

• Against USA: China is pursuing a planned modernisation of its nuclear arsenal because it fears the multi-layered missile defence capabilities of the United States.

• • China is arming its missiles with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) capabilities to neutralise America’s missile shield. 
  • China’s DF-31As, which are road mobile Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), are equipped with MIRVs and potent penetration aids.

Expansionist mode of China vis-à-vis Nuclear arms 

• Increased Tests: The PRC’s ballistic missile tests in 2019 were the highest among the designated Nuclear Weapon States (NWS). 

• Increased Nuclear Arsenal: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) observes that China’s nuclear arsenal has risen from 290 warheads in 2019 to 320 warheads in 2020.

• Tactical Nuclear Weapons: China’s Lop Nur was the site of Chinese sub-critical testing since the PRC adopted a moratorium on hot testing in 1996, enabling China to miniaturise warheads.

• Sizeable Inventory of Fissile materials: China is estimated to possess 2.9+-0.6 metric tonnes of Weapons-grade Plutonium (WGP) compared to India’s is 0.6+-0.15 tonnes of WGP

• Goal to match U.S. & Russian nuclear force levels: The Chinese state mouthpiece, Global Times, has recently called for a 1,000-warhead nuclear arsenal, underlining the motivation of the PLA 

Challenges to India due to China’s nuclear expansionism

• Sophisticated nature of Chinese nuclear capabilities relative to India, give Beijing considerable coercive leverage against India which could alter the conventional military balance
• Increased nuclear arsenal could lead China to press ahead with a limited aims war.
• China is believed to base a part of its nuclear arsenal in inland territories such as in the Far-Western Xinjiang Region, which is close to Aksai Chin. 
• Korla in Xinjiang is believed to host DF-26 IRBMs with a range of 4,000 kilometres, which can potentially strike targets across most of India. They can be either conventional or nuclear tipped
• China’s land-based missiles are a primarily road mobile and could play a key role in any larger conventional offensive China might mount against India along the LAC.

Way Ahead

• Conventional escalation between Chinese and Indian forces along the LAC must factor the role of nuclear weapons and their impact on military operations 
• India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC) needs to be on a heightened state of alert to ward off any Chinese nuclear threats
• India should start seriously assessing its extant nuclear doctrine and redouble efforts to get a robust triadic capability for deterrence.

Connecting the dots:

• No First Use policy of India’s nuclear doctrine
• Nuclear Suppliers Group and why India is not a part of it?