Ethics Theory, TLP-UPSC Mains Answer Writing
Q. 11. West Asia is witnessing a shift from a US-Israel centric order to a more multipolar regional framework. Examine the factors driving this transformation and analyse its implications for India’s strategic and economic interests. (250 words, 15 marks)
Introduction
The Gaza conflict and declining US influence are pushing West Asia away from a US-Israel-led order toward a more multipolar setup, where regional powers and countries like China and Russia play a growing role.
Body
Drivers of the Multipolar Shift:
- US credibility decline: As noted in UN debates and the Gaza ceasefire resolution (March 2024), the US is increasingly seen as partisan and untrustworthy by Arab populations. • Rise of regional agency: Arab states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Egypt have taken independent diplomatic initiatives (e.g., ceasefire mediation, OIC summits), reducing reliance on the US.
- China’s entry: Beijing’s Saudi-Iran deal (2023) and support for ceasefire diplomacy show growing Chinese footprint.
- Public pressure: Massive pro-Palestinian protests and opinion polls in Arab nations demand an independent foreign policy aligned with public sentiment.
- Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’: Non-state actors like Hezbollah and Houthis challenge US-Israeli dominance, creating deterrence dynamics outside formal diplomacy.
→ Together, these developments point to a regional rebalancing, diluting traditional hegemonies and inviting multipolar negotiations.
Implications for India:
- Energy security: Stable regional diplomacy ensures continued oil and LNG imports; West Asia supplies over 60% of India’s crude needs.
- Strategic autonomy: India can engage multilaterally with Israel, Iran, Gulf states, and emerging players like China without rigid alignment.
- Economic corridors: Projects like IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) gain traction in a cooperative regional climate.
- Diaspora protection: A stable West Asia reduces risks to India’s 9 million-strong diaspora, crucial for remittances.
- Defence & diplomacy: India can deepen security ties with UAE and Saudi Arabia while keeping open channels with Iran and Israel.
Conclusion
West Asia’s move towards multipolarity offers India both flexibility and leverage. As Jaishankar said, “In a world of more choices, strategic autonomy becomes more valuable.” India must pursue balanced ties through neutrality, partnerships, and active diplomacy.
