ECONOMY/ GOVERNANCE

Analysis of Q1 Growth Data

Context: Recently, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released the GDP (gross domestic product) and GVA (gross value added) data for the first quarter of the Financial Year 2021-22.

Engines of Demand 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 17,83,905 18,89,008 20,24,421 14,94,524 17,83,611
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) 3,63,763 3,93,709 3,92,585 4,42,618 4,21,471
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 9,89,620 10,82,670 12,33,178 6,58,465 10,22,335
Net Exports —1,44,175 — 1,22,238 — 1,70,515 34,071 — 62084

 

Total GDP* (an L-shaped recovery) 31,62,537 33,59,162 35,66,708 26,95,421 32,38,020
GDP for a V-shaped recovery 31,62,537 33,59,162 35,66,708 26,95,421 40,07,553

Table 1: GDP (at 2011-12 Prices) in Q1 (April-June) of 2021-22 falls back to levels last seen in 2018 (In Rs Crore) 

Analysis of the government Claim

The story is equally worrisome when one looks at the GVA data.

Industry 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 4,04,433 4,27,177 4,49,390 4,65,280 4,86,292
Mining & Quarrying 95,928 88,634 82,914 68,680 81,444
Manufacturing 5,03,682 5,61,875 5,67,516 3,63,448 5,43,821
Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services 67,876 74,998 79,654 71,800 82,042
Construction 2,42,588 2,49,913 2,60,099 1,31,439 2,21,256
Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting 5,63,038 6,09,330 6,64,311 3,45,099 4,63,525
Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services 7,28,068 7,57,850 8,02,241 7,61,791 7,89,929
Public Administration, Defence & Other Services* 3,57,203 3,87,589 3,99,148 3,58,373 3,79,205
Total GVA

(L-shaped Recovery)

29,62,815 31,57,366 33,05,273 25,65,909 30,47,516
GVA for a V-shaped recovery 29,62,815 31,57,366 33,05,273 25,65,909 36,44,063

Table 2: GVA (at 2011-12 Prices) in Q1 of 2021-22 (in Rs Crore) 

What is the point of this analysis?

Connecting the dots:

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