Topic: General Studies 1, 2 & 3:
- Effects of globalization on Indian society.
- Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
- India’s Economic reforms and Investment models
COVID-19 and the crumbling world order
COVID-19 will fundamentally transform the world especially the following:
- The world order
- International Balance of power
- The future of globalisation
- Traditional conceptions of national security
- World Order
- COVID-19 has exposed that global institutional framework are:
- Pawn in the hands of the great powers (who created these institutions post WW-II)
- Undemocratic and unrepresentative in its character
- Cash-strapped to fight crisis of this scale
- Its agenda is focused on high-table security issues and are not designed to serve humanity at large.
- Post-national regional arrangements like EU also stood clueless when the virus spread like wildfire in Europe. Its member states turned inward for solutions and not regional coordination.
- Credibility of the world institutions has been further eroded
- The global institutional architecture of the 1940s cannot help humanity face the challenges of the 2020s.
- Need for new social contract between states and the international system
- Balance of Power
- One country that is likely to come out stronger from this crisis is China.
- China’s industrial production is recovering even as other countries are taking a hit.
- The decline in oil prices will make China’s recovery even faster.
- China appears to use its manufacturing power to its geopolitical advantage.
- Beijing has offered medical aid and expertise to those in need
- China has increased cooperation with its arch-rival Japan
- Beijing’s claims to global leadership will be aided by its manufacturing power
- It might push Huawei 5G trials as a side bargain
- China might also showcase the Belt and Road Initiative as the future of global connectivity.
- COVID-19 will further push the international system into a world with Chinese characteristics.
- Future of Globalisation
- Neoliberal economic globalisation will take a major beating as experts have predicted recession worse than 2008 crisis
- The profits of big corporations will reduce, and the demand for stability will increase.
- COVID-19 shock will further catalyse states’ protectionist tendencies fuelled by hyper nationalism.
- There will be an increased state intervention to avoid unpredictable supply sources, avoid geopolitically sensitive zones, and national demands for emergency reserves.
- Retreat of LPG: Licence-quoto-permit Raj can return
- State to become omnipresent and omnipotent: Governments will gather more power and surveillance technologies to prevent future such shocks
- State-led models of globalisation and economic development would be preferred over (big) corporates-led globalisation
- New-age racism: Questions are likely to be asked about the source of goods and stringent imposition of phytosanitary measures by advanced states on products coming from developing countries
- Impact on Indian Society: Moral claims based on birth & class and the associated notions about hygiene (purity) could become sharper
Globally, societies could become more self-seeking and inward-looking
Source: The Hindu
Connecting the dots:
- Perils of Licence raj and Crony Capitalism
- Impact of COVID-19 on India’s caste system
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