Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors
In stand-off, keeping an eye on the nuclear ball
Context: There is now growing evidence that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to expand its nuclear arsenal
Why China is increasing its nuclear arsenal?
Power projection: An increased nuclear arsenal means a stronger deterrence to China’s opponents
Against USA: China is pursuing a planned modernisation of its nuclear arsenal because it fears the multi-layered missile defence capabilities of the United States.
China is arming its missiles with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) capabilities to neutralise America’s missile shield.
China’s DF-31As, which are road mobile Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), are equipped with MIRVs and potent penetration aids.
Expansionist mode of China vis-à-vis Nuclear arms
Increased Tests: The PRC’s ballistic missile tests in 2019 were the highest among the designated Nuclear Weapon States (NWS).
Increased Nuclear Arsenal: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) observes that China’s nuclear arsenal has risen from 290 warheads in 2019 to 320 warheads in 2020.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons: China’s Lop Nur was the site of Chinese sub-critical testing since the PRC adopted a moratorium on hot testing in 1996, enabling China to miniaturise warheads.
Sizeable Inventory of Fissile materials: China is estimated to possess 2.9+-0.6 metric tonnes of Weapons-grade Plutonium (WGP) compared to India’s is 0.6+-0.15 tonnes of WGP
Goal to match U.S. & Russian nuclear force levels: The Chinese state mouthpiece, Global Times, has recently called for a 1,000-warhead nuclear arsenal, underlining the motivation of the PLA
Challenges to India due to China’s nuclear expansionism
Sophisticated nature of Chinese nuclear capabilities relative to India, give Beijing considerable coercive leverage against India which could alter the conventional military balance
Increased nuclear arsenal could lead China to press ahead with a limited aims war.
China is believed to base a part of its nuclear arsenal in inland territories such as in the Far-Western Xinjiang Region, which is close to Aksai Chin.
Korla in Xinjiang is believed to host DF-26 IRBMs with a range of 4,000 kilometres, which can potentially strike targets across most of India. They can be either conventional or nuclear tipped
China’s land-based missiles are a primarily road mobile and could play a key role in any larger conventional offensive China might mount against India along the LAC.
Way Ahead
Conventional escalation between Chinese and Indian forces along the LAC must factor the role of nuclear weapons and their impact on military operations
India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC) needs to be on a heightened state of alert to ward off any Chinese nuclear threats
India should start seriously assessing its extant nuclear doctrine and redouble efforts to get a robust triadic capability for deterrence.
Connecting the dots:
No First Use policy of India’s nuclear doctrine
Nuclear Suppliers Group and why India is not a part of it?
