Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
War and talks: On Taliban ceasefire
Context: The Taliban’s decision to cease fire for three days during Id-ul-Adha
Significance of the ceasefire: It has come as a relief for Afghans who have seen unabated violence despite a peace agreement between the insurgents and the U.S
For a brief background on US-Taliban Deal: Click Here (Part I) and Here (Part-II)
A Bad Precedent w.r.t Taliban Ceasefires
In June 2018 and May 2020, the Taliban had briefly ended hostilities to mark the end of the holy month of Ramzan.
On both occasions, it refused to extend the ceasefire, returning to war as soon as the celebrations were over.
Is there a renewed hope that ceasefire will extend beyond festivities?
This time, however, hopes are high that the truce could be extended as Kabul and the insurgents are preparing to launch the intra-Afghan talks that were promised in the U.S.-Taliban deal (supposed to start in March 2020).
What Stalled the Intra-Afghan Talks which were to begin in March 2020?
Preconditions not met: Both sides failed to reach an agreement on prisoner exchange, that was considered necessary for peace talks to begin as per US-Taliban deal
Infighting in Afghan Government
2019 election results were contestedby the main Opposition candidate, Abdullah Abdullah, who formed a parallel administration –resulting in divided Afghan govt.
Abdulla Abdullah came back with Afghan govt. only after being appointed the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation that will lead talks with the Taliban.
Slow Progress of Deal: Finally, President Ghani decided to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners, which was followed by the Taliban’s ceasefire announcement.
Challenges Ahead for Intra-Afghan Talks
There are various loopholes in the US-Taliban deal which makes it harder for various stakeholders to reconcile
When the U.S. entered into talks with the insurgent group, it did not insist on a ceasefire
So the Taliban continues to engage in war and talks simultaneously.
The Americans, badly looking for a way out of the conflict, kept the Afghan government out of the peace process, thus weakening their position
The onus was on a weakened Afghan government to start talks even as the Taliban continued attacks.
Conclusion
The Taliban’s ceasefire is an opportunity to kick-start intra-Afghan peace talks
Connecting the dots:
Heart of Asia
Consequences of US-Taliban Deal on India’s security interests
