Context: USA has called on India to open a political conversation with the Taliban. There was also a signal from the Taliban that it is eager for a productive relationship with India
Taliban- A brief history
Taliban – considered as Terror organisation in Indian Diplomatic circles- is a conservative religiously orthodox political organisation which uses violence as strategy to achieve its objectives
Taliban which was ousted from power by US in 2001 has been engaged in a civilian war against Afghanistan government (ally of US)
US troops stationed in Afghanistan since 2001 has been losing ground to Taliban and wants an exit from country.
The recent US-Taliban deal has emboldened Taliban and given it an international recognition and legitimacy
India and Taliban
India has historically sided with Northern Alliance- an opposition to Taliban.
Due to Taliban’s close nexus with Pakistan’s ISI, India is strategically opposed to it
Some argue that there is no reason for Delhi to join the international trend to embrace the Taliban, in the wake of US-Taliban deal
They argue that when the Taliban becomes a peaceful entity and joins the quest for a political settlement with Kabul,Delhi should have no objection to direct talks.
Should India have direct talks with Taliban?
The question of Delhi opening a dialogue with the Taliban is a tactical issue focused on when, how and on what terms.
But the Taliban remains an important sub-set of the larger and more strategic Pashtun question that holds the key to India’s enduring interest in Afghanistan
What is India’s interest in Afghanistan?
Promoting a peaceful, independent and a sovereign Afghanistan that is not a subaltern to the Pakistan army.
This ensures a safer regional environment and better prospects for Indian trade to Central Asia & Europe through Afghanistan
What is Pashtun issue in Afghanistan?
The Pashtuns constitute nearly 42 per cent of the population.
The sizeable Afghan minorities include 27 per cent Tajiks, 9 per cent each of Hazaras and Uzbeks.
The Taliban, an essentially Pashtun formation, had brutally crushed the minorities during its brief rule in the late 1990s.
The core of stability in country is reconciling the interests of multiple ethnic groups in Afghanistan especially between Pashtuns and minorities
The problem of constructing internal balance in Afghanistan has been complicated by Pakistan’s meddling, which is driven by unreasonable fear and ambition.
Complicated relationship between Pakistan & Pashtuns – Opens a Strategic space for India
Pashtuns who are majority in Afghanistan (need their support for Pakistan’s influence) are however minority in Pakistan (clashes with Pakistan’s majority)
The Pashtun population is estimated to be around 15 million in Afghanistan and 35 million in Pakistan.
Although Pashtun separatism has long ceased to be a force in Pakistan, Islamabad finds the Pashtun question re-emerge in a different form.
Also, the Taliban has never endorsed the Durand Line as the legitimate border with Pakistan
A stronger Taliban will push Pashtun Nationalism across the border
Conclusion
Delhi can’t escape the complex geopolitics of the Pashtun lands.
That the Taliban wants to talk to India and Pakistan brands Pashtun leaders as Indian agents only underlines Delhi’s enduring salience in Afghanistan.
Also, those calling for direct engagement with the Taliban say that Delhi can’t ignore such an important force in Afghan politics
Connecting the dots:
Operation Enduring Freedom
Rise and decline of ISIS- Role of International Coalition
