Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.
Post COVID-19 world
With COVID-19 pandemic spreading to nearly 180 countries and impacting the global economy by bringing it to near standstill, the world order post the crisis could see few changes.
Let us have a look at them.
Political
Increasing political and policy uncertainties where Nations start erecting barriers
US power would shift from one of assertion to neutrality in global affairs.
Acceleration of retreat of US global leadership (reflected in US-Taliban deal)
Russia dominance will increase as it is currently more economically and politically stable and an important power broker in West Asia
Asymmetric capabilities of China and Russia will be further strengthened
Strengthening of China and Russia axis –will have direct impact on the liberal international order
Increasing influence of China & Russia will be a boost to authoritarian regimes and authoritarian trends.
Economical
China would cease to be the world’s biggest exporter of manufactured goods
With no country in a position to replace China, situation will precipitate a further economic downturn internationally.
A global recession would be inevitable with vicious downward cycle of decreased demand, closure of firms and reduced income
Industries will face newer challenges such as having to adjust to a shift from cost efficiencies to innovation and policy uncertainties
Social
Psychological issues caused due to extended lockdown – ‘epidemic of despair’ – resulting in anxiety, mental problems, depression, alcoholism and suicides
Inequality further entrenches – those without high levels of skills could see job losses due to depressed economic activity & increased labour competition
Digital authoritarianism – China’s model of AI-powered facial recognition surveillance system could be duplicated in other countries for social management
Artificial Intelligence (AI) can cause the next big human catastrophe
Do You Know?
In terms of GDP in PPP, China is the largest economy with GDP of $25.27 trillion (2019) in comparison to U.S. GDP (PPP) at $21.44 trillion
The cost of the lockdown in India is pegged at around $120 billion or 4% of GDP
CII has estimated that India would require up to six months – after the COVID-19 epidemic is over – to restore normalcy and business continuity.
Connecting the dots:
Multilateralism post COVID-19 pandemic
Article 360 of Indian Constitution – Provisions and Utility
