Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors
Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment.
COVID-19: Critical Analysis on lockdown
India’s present lockdown (to prevent the spread of COVID-19) has been rated as the severest and the most disruptive, impacting a seventh of the world’s population.
The Central government stated that in absence of lockdown, there would have been 800,000 infections by April 15th, 2020
Do You Know?
Sweden’s strategy to fight the pandemic has been largely non-interventionist and instead dependent on voluntary social distancing.
Korea has followed a strategy of aggressive, widespread diagnostic testing and isolation coupled with social distancing.
Criticisms on Lockdown
Lives vs Livelihoods: Extended lockdown negatively impacts the livelihoods of poor and vulnerable sections of society -cure should not be worse than disease
Criticality of timing of lockdown:
Early lockdowns are known to be suboptimal because they merely postpone the peak, but do not reduce the numbers
Many countries have imposed lockdowns only when infections peaked to levels that threatened the capacity of their healthcare systems
Effect on Tropical Countries:
There is also fair likelihood to suspect that tropical country like India may be experiencing a less virulent epidemic than seen in the west
This can be either due to higher natural immunity, or vastly different demographics.
In such case, all-out lockdown was not an efficient solution
Efficient use of intervening time
Failure to train personnel as well as procure the requisite devices, supplies and protective equipment during the lockdown will yield sub-optimal results
Alternative Strategy- Herd Immunity
It is believed that viral epidemics abate only when around 60-80% of the population acquires “herd-immunity” — either by vaccination or by acquiring the disease.
Projection Models:
Several leading global health experts have questioned the numbers projected in the initial studies and forecasts as being inordinately high.
Way Forward
In place of a one-size-fits-all lockdown, there can be graded containment strategies that can be based upon following factors:
Geographic– depending on the varying locational intensity of the disease
Vulnerability-oriented, with differing containment strategies for more vulnerable sections like the aged; and
Sectoral -with a more liberal containment regime in place for essential activities like agriculture
Connecting the dots:
Challenges of using Herd Immunity as a Strategy
Challenges with regard to calibrated exit to lockdown
