US-Iran: Qassem Soleimani , the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force Killed

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

TOPIC: General Studies 2:

• Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian Diaspora

US-Iran: Qassem Soleimani , the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force Killed

Context:

• Tensions between the United States and Iran escalated after a US air raid killed Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces, or PMF.

Daily Current Affairs IAS | UPSC Prelims and Mains Exam – 4th January 2020

SRC: TOI

Consequences:

• These deaths are a potential turning point in the Middle East and are expected to draw severe retaliation from Iran and the forces it backs in the region against Israel and US interests.

About Soleimani:

• Soleimani, had a unique celebrity status among Iran’s military leaders, was highly popular among the hardliners. 
• He was very close to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who once called him a “living martyr of the revolution”. 
• He  was also the main architect of Iran’s recent foreign operations, mainly in Syria and Iraq, which were crucial in saving the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and defeating the Islamic State (IS) in both countries.

Impacts:

• The attack has already killed off even the possibility of renegotiating the nuclear deal. 
• Iran might see this as an act of war like any sovereign country would do.
• It could trigger multiple attacks across the region, destabilising it further, cause heavy casualties and help the jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda and the IS regroup and re-emerge.
• Resumed attacks on oil tankers and other low hanging but high value economic targets, particularly in the oil sector

Impact on India:

• India need to be on the right side of the U.S., our ties with Iran, have their own geostrategic logic.
• Rises India’s oil import bill
• Creates difficulties in supplies, 
• The safety of an estimated eight million expatriates in the Gulf may be affected.
• Iran has the capacity to influence the U.S.-Taliban peace process in Afghanistan which could impact India
• The possibility of some of Shia Muslims being radicalised by this event cannot be ruled out. 

Conclusion:

• U.S. President Donald Trump is responsible for where U.S.-Iran ties stand today as he single-handedly destroyed the co-operation between the two nations established by the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by unilaterally pulling the U.S. out of the agreement in 2018 and reimposing sanctions on Iran. 
• By sabotaging the fragile peace  negotiated over years between world powers, Mr. Trump, in a single act, pushed both the U.S. and Iran down a dangerous slope.

Connecting the dots:

• How to think Iran – US relations Impacts India?
• What would be the next step of Iran?