Topic: General Studies 2:
- Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.
Post COVID-19 world
With COVID-19 pandemic spreading to nearly 180 countries and impacting the global economy by bringing it to near standstill, the world order post the crisis could see few changes.
Let us have a look at them.
- Increasing political and policy uncertainties where Nations start erecting barriers
- US power would shift from one of assertion to neutrality in global affairs.
- Acceleration of retreat of US global leadership (reflected in US-Taliban deal)
- Russia dominance will increase as it is currently more economically and politically stable and an important power broker in West Asia
- Asymmetric capabilities of China and Russia will be further strengthened
- Strengthening of China and Russia axis –will have direct impact on the liberal international order
- Increasing influence of China & Russia will be a boost to authoritarian regimes and authoritarian trends.
- China would cease to be the world’s biggest exporter of manufactured goods
- With no country in a position to replace China, situation will precipitate a further economic downturn internationally.
- A global recession would be inevitable with vicious downward cycle of decreased demand, closure of firms and reduced income
- Industries will face newer challenges such as having to adjust to a shift from cost efficiencies to innovation and policy uncertainties
- Psychological issues caused due to extended lockdown – ‘epidemic of despair’ – resulting in anxiety, mental problems, depression, alcoholism and suicides
- Inequality further entrenches – those without high levels of skills could see job losses due to depressed economic activity & increased labour competition
- Digital authoritarianism – China’s model of AI-powered facial recognition surveillance system could be duplicated in other countries for social management
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) can cause the next big human catastrophe
Do You Know?
- In terms of GDP in PPP, China is the largest economy with GDP of $25.27 trillion (2019) in comparison to U.S. GDP (PPP) at $21.44 trillion
- The cost of the lockdown in India is pegged at around $120 billion or 4% of GDP
- CII has estimated that India would require up to six months – after the COVID-19 epidemic is over – to restore normalcy and business continuity.
Connecting the dots:
- Multilateralism post COVID-19 pandemic
- Article 360 of Indian Constitution – Provisions and Utility