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Post COVID-19 world

  • IASbaba
  • April 4, 2020
  • 0
UPSC Articles
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INTERNATIONAL

Topic: General Studies 2:

  • Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

Post COVID-19 world

With COVID-19 pandemic spreading to nearly 180 countries and impacting the global economy by bringing it to near standstill, the world order post the crisis could see few changes. 

Let us have a look at them.

Political

  • Increasing political and policy uncertainties where Nations start erecting barriers
  • US power would shift from one of assertion to neutrality in global affairs.
  • Acceleration of retreat of US global leadership (reflected in US-Taliban deal)
  • Russia dominance will increase as it is currently more economically and politically stable and an important power broker in West Asia
  • Asymmetric capabilities of China and Russia will be further strengthened
  • Strengthening of China and Russia axis –will have direct impact on the liberal international order
  • Increasing influence of China & Russia will be a boost to authoritarian regimes and authoritarian trends.

Economical

  • China would cease to be the world’s biggest exporter of manufactured goods 
  • With no country in a position to replace China, situation will precipitate a further economic downturn internationally.
  • A global recession would be inevitable with vicious downward cycle of decreased demand, closure of firms and reduced income
  • Industries will face newer challenges such as having to adjust to a shift from cost efficiencies to innovation and policy uncertainties

Social

  • Psychological issues caused due to extended lockdown – ‘epidemic of despair’ – resulting in anxiety, mental problems, depression, alcoholism and suicides
  • Inequality further entrenches – those without high levels of skills could see job losses due to depressed economic activity & increased labour competition
  • Digital authoritarianism – China’s model of AI-powered facial recognition surveillance system could be duplicated in other countries for social management
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) can cause the next big human catastrophe

Do You Know?

  • In terms of GDP in PPPChina is the largest economy with GDP of $25.27 trillion (2019) in comparison to U.S. GDP (PPP) at $21.44 trillion
  • The cost of the lockdown in India is pegged at around $120 billion or 4% of GDP
  • CII has estimated that India would require up to six months – after the COVID-19 epidemic is over – to restore normalcy and business continuity.

Connecting the dots:

  • Multilateralism post COVID-19 pandemic
  • Article 360 of Indian Constitution – Provisions and Utility 

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