Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
India’s Economic reforms and Investment models
COVID-19 and the crumbling world order
COVID-19 will fundamentally transform the world especially the following:
The world order
International Balance of power
The future of globalisation
Traditional conceptions of national security
World Order
COVID-19 has exposed that global institutional framework are:
Pawn in the hands of the great powers (who created these institutions post WW-II)
Undemocratic and unrepresentative in its character
Cash-strapped to fight crisis of this scale
Its agenda is focused on high-table security issues and are not designed to serve humanity at large.
Post-national regional arrangements like EU also stood clueless when the virus spread like wildfire in Europe. Its member states turned inward for solutions and not regional coordination.
Result:
Credibility of the world institutions has been further eroded
The global institutional architecture of the 1940s cannot help humanity face the challenges of the 2020s.
Need for new social contract between states and the international system
Balance of Power
One country that is likely to come out stronger from this crisis is China.
China’s industrial production is recovering even as other countries are taking a hit.
China appears to use its manufacturing power to its geopolitical advantage.
Beijing has offered medical aid and expertise to those in need
China has increased cooperation with its arch-rival Japan
Result:
Beijing’s claims to global leadership will be aided by its manufacturing power
It might push Huawei 5G trials as a side bargain
China might also showcase the Belt and Road Initiative as the future of global connectivity.
COVID-19 will further push the international system into a world with Chinese characteristics.
Future of Globalisation
Neoliberal economic globalisation will take a major beating as experts have predicted recession worse than 2008 crisis
The profits of big corporations will reduce, and the demand for stability will increase.
COVID-19 shock will further catalyse states’ protectionist tendencies fuelled by hyper nationalism.
There will be an increased state intervention to avoid unpredictable supply sources, avoid geopolitically sensitive zones, and national demands for emergency reserves.
Result:
Retreat of LPG: Licence-quoto-permit Raj can return
State to become omnipresent and omnipotent: Governments will gather more power and surveillance technologies to prevent future such shocks
State-led models of globalisation and economic development would be preferred over (big) corporates-led globalisation
New-age racism: Questions are likely to be asked about the source of goods and stringent imposition of phytosanitary measures by advanced states on products coming from developing countries
Impact on Indian Society: Moral claims based on birth & class and the associated notions about hygiene (purity) could become sharper
Conclusion
Globally, societies could become more self-seeking and inward-looking
